One Shot Stopping Power
Article #1
ONE-SHOT STOPPING POWER
How do popular combat loads stack up? Here are the latest results of
thousands of actual shootouts.
BY EVAN P. MARSHALL
Reprinted with permission from Petersen's Handguns, November, 1988
The first comprehensive report on my efforts to collect and analyze
actual shooting data was published in the premier issue of this
magazine. The reader response was overwhelming! I received over 100 letters
and probably almost as many phone calls. Fully 98 percent of the correspondence
was favorable, while the rest contained varying criticisms.
The criticism fell into a few general areas:
(1) "The data sample is too small."
When I indicated that I had to have at least five shootings with a
particular load before I would include it in my study, a number of
people assumed that most if not all of the loads included were in this
category. A couple of writers attacked the study on these grounds,
which I frankly find hilarious, since these same gentelemen have
pontificated on the superiority of the .45 auto with no database at
all! Their "proof" is based on sea stories or anecdotal information.
(2) "Marshall is anti-.45 auto."
Frankly, when it comes to saving my life, I'm anti-handgun! Pistols,
regardless of caliber, are generally not really good fight stoppers.
When we know that we're about to go in harm's way, we had better get a long
gun and a lot of help!
Readers should remember that when I started this study I was an IPSC Section
Coordinator and a staunch advocate of the big-bore handgun. As the results
from actual shootings began to come in, I soon realized that the .45 ACP
fell short of all the propaganda certain gun writers had been spreading
far and wide!
(EDITOR'S NOTE: PLEASE SEE MY COMMENTS IMMEDIATELY BEFORE THE 45ACP SECTION
WHERE HE LISTS "FAILURES" that he"forgot" to include
on all the other calibers. Biased B.S.)
(3) "Marshall only advocates the 9mm because his department won't
let him carry a .45 auto."
This refers to a comment in an article in another publication. The
article was written long before I had enough data to make any
intelligent comments. Unfortunately, the magazine in question did not
publish it until several years later. My department (Detroit PD)
currently approves the S&W Model 645 for on and off duty use, but I
still carry my high-capacity 9mm.
(4) "Head shots shouldn't be included because anything works well
in a head shot."
Actually, this criticism has some merit. While sitting on the FBI's
Wound Ballistic Panel last year at Quantico, fellow panel member Dr. Carroll
Peters of the University of Tennessee made the suggestion that I restrict
my results to torso hits only. I thought that suggestion
was a good one, so the results listed here are torso hits only.
(5) "Marshall's 9mm results don't agree with reports from men I
know and trust."
This comment was made by a Florida cop who was horrified by my recommendation
of the Winchester 9mm Silvertip. What this officer is saying is that he
would sooner base his survival on "war stories" than documented
results.
Well known gunwriter and good friend Mas Ayoob collects shooting results
from sources independent from mine. We compare notes from time to time and
there is very little difference in our results. Furthermore, a rather well
known counter terrorist unit shot live pigswith 9mm and .45 ACP handguns.
The results were videotaped and I'veseen the tape. Pigs shot with 9mm Silvertip
and .45 ACP Silvertip reacted exactly the same way and collapsed at the
same rate. Pigs shot with 9mm ball went down farther than those shot with
.45 ball.
Lastly, a classified study exists on actual shooting results with .38
Special and .357 Magnum. Their findings virtually mirror my results in these
calibers.
CRITERIA
In order to understand why a shooting is included in this study,
readers need to know what sort of information I require:
(1) REPORTS -- before I'll include a shooting in this study, I have to
have access to all the reports. If it's a fatal shooting, I want to
look at and copy (if possible) the homocide file. Autopsy reports are
also required.
(2) INTERVIEWS -- I talk to as many people involved as possible. Shooting
survivors and the doctors who treat them are especially important.
(3) BULLETS -- whenever possible, I was to either see the recovered slugs
or at least photos of them.
(4) RECORDS -- In survivable shooting I want to see the treatment
records.
These stringent requirements, of course, eliminate the "Me & Joe
went on patrol" type of reports. It also means that the compilation
of data is a difficult and slow process. If it weren't for a network of
sources across the country and overseas, I would never have accumulated
enough data to reach any conclusions. Included in each segment by caliber
is a brief description of an actual shooting where the load was used. (Contributor's
Note: Case Studies were deleted in the interest of space.)
DEFINITION OF A STOP
For the purpose of this study, a stop is defined as follows:
(1) If the person shot was engaged in an assault when shot, he or she
is unable to continue. In other words, no more shots are fired or no
more blows are struck.
(2) If the person shot is fleeing, they collapse within ten yards.
SHOOTING RESULTS BY CALIBER
.32 ACP
Frankly, I had no intention of including anything smaller than the
.380 auto, but I kept stumbling across cases where Winchester's
excellent Silvertip load in this caliber was used. The darn thing
always seems to expand in soft tissue. At least, I haven't been able
to find a single instance where it has failed to do so.
LOAD TOTAL STOPS PERCENTAGE
W-W STHP 12 7 58
.380 ACP
This caliber was generally ignored as a serious choice for defensive
purposes until Lee Jurras burst on the scene with the Super Vel line
of ammunition. Lee reasoned that the best approach to handgun stopping power
was to reduce bullet weight, make it as fragile as possible, and drive it
at increased velocities.
While the .38 Special was the greatest beneficiary of this approach,
the .380 auto also benefited. Super Vel's offering in this caliber was
an 88-grain jacketed hollow point at 1,022 feet per second from my
pre-war Walther PP. In actual shootings, the SV load rarely expanded evenly.
Generally, it would peel down one side making a sort of "half mushroom."
Only when it hit heavy bone would it provide the shape we all hope for from
our hollow points.
Currently, of course, Super Vel is out of production. Today, we can
shose between hollow point offerings from Winchester, Federal,
Remington, CCI, and Hornady. Of the currently commercially available rounds,
Silvertip has proven to be the best performer. It is a favorite of undercover
narcs, off-duty officers, and civilians, who like a small pistol for defensive
or second gun purposes. Of all the current .380s, I like the SIG P-230 the
best and carry it as a backup to my 9mm.
LOAD TOTAL STOPS PERCENTAGE
Federal FMJ 27 15 55
Federal JHP 22 13 59
CCI JHP 18 10 56
W-W STHP 31 19 61
R-P JHP 17 10 58
Hornady JHP 9 5 56
.38 SPECIAL
Long the traditional police caliber, this round received a real boost
from the genius of Lee Jurras. Lee decided that since a change of
caliber by police agencies was generally too expensive, the best
approach was to upgrade the ammunication. Lee reduced the bullet weight
from 158 grains to 110, hollow pointed the bullet, and made it rather fragile
by utilizing a thin jacket and soft lead core.
The round produced an honest 1,100+ fps from the four-inch barreled service
revolver and expanded well in soft tissue. Producing in excess of 1,000
fps from the two-inch barreled revolver, expansion was an iffy proposition
from this barrel length.
Shortly after the introduction of the Super Vel line, the other
manufacturers were forced to follow suit. Today, of course, we have a bewildering
variety of "high performance" offerings.
In spite of al the high velocity, light bullet weight hoopla in this
caliber, the best performers in actual shootouts have been the +P
158-grain lead hollow point loads produced by Remington, Winchester, and
Federal. These three loads have produced virtualy identical results. Producing
a velocity in excess of 800 fps from the two-inch barrel, they are reliable
expanders in soft tissue without hitting bone.
2-INCH BARREL
LOAD TOTAL STOPS PERCENTAGE
W-W 158-grain LHP 29 18 61
Fed 158-grain LHP 23 14 61
Rem 158-grain LHP 16 10 61
Fed 125-grain JHP 26 15 60
Rem 125-grain JHP 39 23 58
CCI 125-grain JHP 18 10 57
W-W 125-grain JHP 24 13 56
Fed 125-grain JSP 48 26 55
Fed 158-grain SWC 53 27 50
Fed 158-grain RNL 112 57 50
Rem 95-grain JHP 58 30 50
W-W 110-grain JHP 50 25 50
4-INCH BARREL
W-W 158-grain LHP 82 53 65
Fed 158-grain LHP 66 42 64
Rem 158-grain LHP 58 37 64
Fed 125-grain JHP 39 24 63
Rem 125-grain JHP 28 17 61
CCI 125-grain JHP 21 13 60
W-W 125-grain JHP 20 12 60
Fed 125-grain JSP 52 30 58
Fed 158-grain SWC 68 37 55
Fed 158-grain RNL 109 60 55
Rem 95-grain JHP 84 46 55
W-W 110-grain JHP 54 30 55
9MM PARABELLUM
This caliber was seldom seen in law enforcement circles until the
Illinois State Police and Salt Lake City PD adopted the S&W Model 39
pistol. Most departments, however, looked at such usage as an aberration,
and it was not until the Model 59 arrived upon the scene that the 9mm began
to receive serious sonsideration. The use of high-capacity pistols in this
caliber by bad guys increased the interest and demand for the high-capacity
9mm semi-auto pistol.
The U.S. military's change to this caliber was the final straw. Today,
of course, it is the overwhelming choice of departments switching to
other calibers of handguns.
Super el introduced high-performance loads in this caliber, but the
stubby 90-grain JHP was not a reliable feeder in the original Model
39s. Eventually, as the pistols in this caliber became popular,
Winchester game us the Silvertip and Federal and Remington gave us comparable
loads.
Winchester's 115-grain Silvertip got a bad rap from various "experts"
after the Miami Shootout. Contrary to rumors, the bad guy was struck
by two Silvertips not thirteen. One struck him in the thoracic cavity,
and the second in the arm. The first hit was a non-survivable wound,
while the second blew out the brachial artery and was potentially
fatal. Both rounds did what they were designed to do -- they expanded
in soft tissue. The argument that the agents would have survived in
they had had .45s is nonsense.
LOAD TOTAL STOPS PERCENTAGE
W-W 147-grain JHP 10 8 80
W-W 115-grain JHP+P+ 29 23 78
Fed 115-grain JHP 56 40 72
W-W 115-grain STHP 89 63 71
R-P 115-grain JHP 64 45 70
CCI 115-grain JHP 40 28 69
Horn 90-grain JHP 12 7 58
Horn 115-grain JHP 19 13 68
W-W 115-grain FMJ 63 38 60
.357 MAGNUM
This caliber was introduced in the mid-1930s as a higher powered
version of the .38 Special. Not originally developed with law
enforcement in mind, it gradually found a niche in police/defensive
circles.
Prior to the Super Vel line, the only "high performance" .357
load was the Remington 158-grain jacketed soft point. Not specifically designed
for police use, it produced only marginal expansion against human targets.
Today, of course, we have a wide variety of offerings in this caliber
in a wide spectrum of bullet weights and styles to choose from. While
some very impressive claims are made about them, most are really not that
spectacular of performers in actual shootings. There are a few, however,
that produce stopping power results that should bring .357 carriers a feeling
of real security.
LOAD TOTAL STOPS PERCENTAGE
Fed 110-grain JHP 39 32 82
Fed 125-grain JHP 48 41 91
Fed 158-grain JHP 26 19 73
Fed 158-grain SWC 24 17 71
R-P 110-grain JHP 19 15 80
R-P 125-grain JHP 37 33 89
R-P 158-grain JHP 19 14 74
R-P 158-grain SWC 38 25 66
R-P 158-grain JSP 23 17 65
W-W 110-grain JHP 31 26 84
W-W 125-grain JHP 53 45 85
W-W 145-grain STHP 26 20 80
W-W 158-grain JHP 51 36 71
W-W 158-grain SWC 64 46 72
CCI 110-grain JHP 18 15 83
CCI 125-grain JHP 24 21 87
CCI 125-grain JSP 14 10 71
CCI 140-grain JHP 23 17 74
CCI 158-grain JHP 20 14 70
CCI 158-grain JSP 18 12 67
Fed 158-grain NHP* 11 8 73
Fed 158-grain SWC* 14 9 65
*Nyclad rounds
.41 MAGNUM
This caliber was developed in the mid sixties as the "ultimate police
cartridge." Unfortunately, a series of mishaps doomed it almost from
the beginning. One department switched to the S&W Model 58 revolver
in this caliber and then issued the jacketed soft point ammo instead of
the moderate-velocity lead semi-wadcutter offering. The recoil differences
between the full power magnum loads and the .38 Special they had been carrying
were dramatic and qualification scores plummeted. Another department carried
the SWC load, but compared their qualification scores fired with factory
.41 ammo with scores fired when they were using N-frame .357s with .38 wadcutter
reloads.
LOAD TOTAL STOPS PERCENTAGE
R-P 210-grain SWC 20 15 75
R-P 210-grain JSP 11 9 81
W-W 210-grain JHP 9 7 77
W-W 210-grain SWC 19 14 73
W-W 175-grain STHP 14 12 85
.44 SPECIAL
Just as the .38 Special preceded the .357, the .44 Special was the
forerunner of the .44 Magnum. People like Elmer Keith developed heavy handloads
for this caliber that eventualy generated enough interest for the .44 Magnum
to come into begin.
Of course, once the .44 Mag was a reality, interest in the Special
waned. The only load available in this caliber was the 246-grain round
nose lead load, until Charter Arms produced the .44 Special Bulldog.
Subsequent to that, S&W re-introduced the Model 24 and only increased
the demand for high performance ammunition in this caliber. Even the hottest
.44 Special loads in this caliber are mild when fire in the N-frame Smith.
LOAD TOTAL STOPS PERCENTAGE
W-W 246-grain RNL 24 18 65
Fed 200-grain LHP 19 13 68
W-W 200-grain STHP 20 14 70
R-P 200-grain SWC 10 7 70
.44 MAGNUM
This round was not given serious consideration as a law
enforcement/defensive caliber, until the advent of the "Dirty Harry"
films. Then everyone had to have one! It didn't matter that few could
control this revolver in rapid double-action fire with full power
loads, people just had to have them.
The introduction of loads like Remington's medium-velocity offering, Winchester's
Silvertip (a sort of three-quarter magnum load), and Winchester's medium
velocity SWC offering, have made this caliber an interesting alternative
for police or civilians who prefer the big-bore revolver.
LOAD TOTAL STOPS PERCENTAGE
W-W 240-grain SWC 30 24 80
R-P 240-grain SWC 38 31 82
W-W 240-grain JHP 26 21 81
W-W 210-grain STHP 20 17 85
Fed 180-grain JHP 16 13 81
Fed 240-grain JHP 21 18 85
R-P 240-grain JHP 12 10 83
R-P 240-grain SWC* 40 28 70
*Medium velocity
.45 ACP
The big auto, of course, is a very popular defensive handgun. Not seen
that widely in law enforcement, it is nonetheless what most
knowledgeable people consider a superior choice to save one's life
with. I have carried one, and there is a certain emotional tie to that
big old jacketed slug. The actual facts, however, do not support all
the mystical qualities that have been ascribed to it.
I don't have any problems with those who prefer it to other sidearms,
but I do object to lies, myths and unsubstantiable anecdotal stories
about it. Carriers of this round are extremely smug about the fact
that none of the horror stories are told about stopping power failures
with other calibers exist about the .45 ACP. Well, I hate to burst
anyone's bubble, but read on.
Editor's Note: Evan Marshall did not include a "failure"
list for any
of the other calibers he included in his "study". He is a renoun
9MM
fan, and has done (too) much to cause a big debate among 9MM vs 45acp shooters
as to which is the better cartridge for personal defense. My feelings are
that the handgun, when compared to the power of rifles and shotguns, are
wimpy. HONESTLY now, when comparing all handgun calibers for personal defense,
they ALL perform basically the same....
At the bottom line you'll find BULLET PLACEMENT far and above the most important
criteria when looking at Evan's "statistics". Since he did not
include failures on any of the other calibers, he has sterilized the relevance
in this report, and you should take his "facts" with a grain of
salt (at least until he grows up and includes 9MM failures.)
Whether he wants to acknowledge it or not, the 45ACP has been proven on
the battlefield of world wars and military conflicts since 1911, a "statistic"
that he can neither void or cover up. Other calibers such as the .380 and
9MM can only wish they had as many hardcore followers, or as much time on
the battlefields as the .45ACP. Marshall basically became famous when he
published this hodgepodge of facts and figures, so do you blame him for
starting a controversy? Not really.
FAILURE #1: A southern cop, he was on midnight patrol in the downtown
area alone. Driving past an alley, he saw two men standing with their back
to him at a doorway. He called for backup, but decided to investigate matters
before his help arrived -- an almost fatal error. He yelled at the two men
to turn around. They did and opened fire with the .45s they carried. The
officer took five torso hits with .45 ball and collapsed. He told me from
his hospital bed, "Evan, I knew I was going to die in that alley, and
then I heard those bastards laughing at me." Pulling himself to one
knee, he pulled his duty revolver and killed them. His weapon? A S&W
Model 10 loaded with 158-grain round nose lead ammo!
FAILURE #2: The rooming house residents had been arguing all day. Finally,
two of them had traded blows and vowed to go and get their guns. They met
in the hallway. One was armed with a Government Model Colt loaded with hardball,
while the other had a cheap .22 caliber revolver. Our .45 lover laughed
and opened fire After he emptied his gun, he looked in amazement as the
.22 carrier pointed his small revolver at his chest and fired once. The
auto dropped from his hand as he died. The .22 carrier went to his room,
changed clothes and then took two different buses to the hospital where
the doctors removed seven rounds of .45 ball from his chest.
FAILURE #3: A motorcycle cop, he carried a Colt Gold Cup loaded with 200-grain
jacketed hollow point ammo. Making a traffic stop for a minor violation,
he was suddenly confronted by a revolver-armed motorist. The officer fired
twice and then game chase as his attacker took of on foot. The foot pursuit
lasted for 13 block, until the bad guy ran into a garage and, sticking the
gun in his mouth, took his own life. The autopsy found a .38 slug in his
head and two expanded .45 hollow points in his chest!!
FAILURE #4: A U.S. military member with counter-terrorist responsibilities,
he carried a cocked and locked .45 everywhere he went. He and his wife were
walking to their car in the theater parking lot when he was confronted by
three long-haired youths. They demanded his wallet, and when he told them
to forget it, one pulled a knife. The soldier's response was swift and sure.
He pulled his .45 and double tapped the kid with the knife. Turning his
attention to the other youth, he suddenly heard his wife scream his name.
Turning, he saw the knife sticking from his wife's stomach. He shot the
stabber again and grabbed his wife. While in the process of providing first
aid for her, he heard a car start and saw the youth drive away. His wife
was rushed to the hospital where emergency surgery saved her life. While
leaving through the emergency exit, he saw her attacker walking in for treatment.
The 16-year-old holdup man had taken four rounds of .45 ball in the chest
and was still mobile four hours after
the incident!
FAILURE #5: A citizen was in his living room, when he heard sirens on his
quiet residential street. Looking out the window, he saw a
sheriff's deputy struggling with a man. A reserve deputy and IPSC
shooter, our hero grabbed his Lightweight Commander and ran outside. He
had just reached his driveway, when he saw the bad guy had the deputy's
Magnum. The reserve quickly fired three shots from his Commander. To his
horror, the bad guy quickly shot the deputy and opened fire at the reservist.
The bad guy then jumped in the deputy's vehicle and escaped. He was found
three days later by the state patrolin a gas station. He had to be forcibly
subdued before they could take him to the hospital where the doctors removed
three rounds of .45 ball from his back!
LOAD TOTAL STOPS PERCENTAGE
W-W 230-grain FMJ 79 51 63
W-W 185-grain STHP 30 21 70
Fed 185-grain JHP 36 25 69
R-P 185-grain JHP 26 18 69
CCI 200-grain JHP 46 34 74
.45 COLT
This caliber was generally neglected by those seeking a defensive
handgun until two things happened. First, S&W introduced the Model 25-5
in this caliber. It is a moderate recoil gun that throws a big old heavy
lead slug that a lot of people find comforting. Second, Winchester and Federal
gave us hollow point loads for this weapon.
It is very popular among cops who either cannot carry a Magnum or who are
recoil conscious. Guys and gals in my department buy and carry a lot of
these revolvers.
LOAD TOTAL STOPS PERCENTAGE
W-W 255-grain RNL 64 41 64
W-W 225-grain STHP 29 20 69
Fed 225-grain LHP 30 21 70
CONCLUSION
This is where things stand as of July 7, 1988. Careful readers will
not there have been some substantial changes in some calibers and
loads. Again remember, this is not "Marshall's Theory of Stopping
Power." My ego is not tied to any of this, and I will follow it
wherever it leads me. I have no axe to grind and the whole purpose of
this study is to provide good guys and gals with enough reliable data
to make an intelligent decision. The information provided here is just
a small portion of what will be contained in a stopping power book I'm in
the process of finishing.
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